SIX CASE STUDIES: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS, HIGH-END JOB LOSS, GROWING HOMELESSNESS, SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY, AND DRONES
Excerpts from David and Daniel Barnhizer, The Artificial Intelligence Contagion: Can Democracy Withstand the Imminent Transformation of Work, Wealth and the Social Order? (Clarity Press 2019).
David Barnhizer
The Artificial Intelligence Contagion book that I wrote in 2019 with significant contributions, insights at many points and independent chapters from my Michigan State University Professor of Law son Daniel as co-author, has been recognized as a prescient analysis of what is unfolding with considerably greater speed, scope and technological sophistication. “Contagion” as Dan and I tend to refer to the book, is not a technical work as opposed to an examination of what is taking place from a societal perspective. Although this excerpt is more narrowly focused on six listed topics, the totality of the range, implications and seriousness of the emerging developments is in far too many ways dire. This chapter is simply an attempt to demonstrate how serious and widespread are the challenges we face, ones with which we seem ill-equipped to cope.
In The Artificial Intelligence Contagion: Can Democracy Survive the Imminent Transformation of Work, Wealth, and the Social Order, we analyzed in detail the impact of AI systems and robotics on society through our systems of work, education, governmental control and monitoring, corporate power, and the behavior of organized and intense cadres of social activists. While we projected many of the most serious conditions to “hit” in a period ranging from 2030-2045 or so, the unfortunate reality is that the onset of severe concerns has been accelerated by the COVID-19 Pandemic.
We are already feeling its effects and our current leadership is incapable of understanding or responding to what is happening. We are caught in a situation in which Geoffrey Hinton, ofter referred to as the “Godfather of AI” has written that we humans have never before had to face an entity “smarter than us”. Yet that is where we are and the rapidly emerging consensus is that Artificial Intelligence is still growing by leaps and bounds and we haven’t even come close to developing Quantum Computing AI that is predicted to have capabilities orders of magnitude beyond the existing AI systems. Even now I often refer to “Artificial” Intelligence systems as “Alternative” Intelligence because that really is what has developed.
I examined key elements in America’s culture that were transforming our reality in a serious of books following the publication of The Artificial Intelligence Contagion. The subsequent analyses include “Un-Canceling” America (Amazon, 2021), “No More Excuses”! Parents Defending K-12 Education (Amazon 2022), and most recently Conformity Colleges: The Destruction of Intellectual Creativity and Dissent in America’s Universities (Skyhorse Publishing, 2024).
Taken together with The Artificial Intelligence Contagion, these books seek to describe the extreme divisiveness that is afflicting the American society, not as an accident, but as the result of a massive and ongoing attempt to undermine the fundamental values, ideals and institutions of the nation in order that we become in essence a Neo-Marxist state. The fact is that such political systems are doomed to fail in significant ways, and quickly become authoritarian regimes. This doesn’t seem to matter to self-lauding “revolutionaries” who beneath their impassioned rhetoric are power-driven despots such as those who lead the Chinese Communist Party, the Soviet’s Communist Party which simply transformed into Vladimir Putin’s tyranny, Venezuela and Cuba, or Hitler’s National Socialist Party.
Six Brief Case Studies About the Potential Effects of AI/Robotics
In an effort to make what is occurring concrete, this chapter sets out six brief case studies. The studies discuss the effects of autonomous driverless vehicles, “killer robots” being developed by Russia, China and the US, the challenges facing societies whose populations are being distorted toward the upper end of our human age range in what is discussed as the “Age Curse”, the loss of higher end jobs that were thought safe from AI/robotics replacement, and the significant vulnerability of major urban “mega-cities” to disruptions of supply and cyber attacks. They also discuss the absolute stupidity that accompanied the widespread development and unthinking commercialization of drone technology.
Much of what is being said about artificial intelligence, robotics, job loss and abuse of the Internet and AI systems by governments, corporations, aggressive identity groups and malicious trolls “feels” abstract or unreal. Of course we “know” on some level of awareness that if a loss of 50 percent of human jobs occurs over the next 15 years, our society will be in a dismal state. We understand, at least intellectually, that if income inequality and loss of opportunity continue to grow as financial returns increasingly flow away from human labor to capital investors and the incredibly wealthy as corporations and investors shift the systems of production and service to AI/robotics, it will create extreme and widespread social tension. This includes what may be an unsustainable need to support those thrown out of work. We “know” these things. We just don’t know what to do about them and are in a state of denial and deliberate ignorance.
These challenges all represent such overwhelming dilemmas that we have difficulty treating them as real from a psychological perspective. When something looms on levels as enormous as what we have created with AI/robotics, our minds somehow flip an “off” switch that allows us to deny or ignore the emerging reality because we feel helpless in the face of what is occurring. Since we feel we can’t deal with the challenges, we ignore them. The possibilities are treated as interesting abstractions, not as concrete phenomena that are shaping and defining our future. These case studies are offered in a preliminary attempt to make the developments real.
CASE STUDY # 1: MILLIONS OF PAID JOBS WILL BE LOST TO AUTONOMOUS CARS, TRUCKS AND BUSES
One example to which we can all relate involves self-driving or autonomous vehicles. Millions of jobs will be lost to autonomous driving technology. US data from 2014 and 2015 provide a sense of the potential job loss just in the transportation sector. A recent news story put the possible direct job loss from automated vehicles at 4.1 million in the US alone. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that there were 826,510 light truck and delivery drivers actively employed with a mean annual wage of $34,080. The BLS reports 1,797,700 Heavy and Tractor Trailer drivers in the US in 2014 with an average yearly wage of $40,260. There were 665,000 school bus drivers earning an average of $30,950 along with 233,700 taxi drivers and chauffeurs averaging $23,510 annually.
In the “Gig” economy where people pull together a mosaic of patched together jobs because that is increasingly what is available, it has been reported that Uber has 400,000 “active drivers” in the US and Lyft 315,000 drivers. Although the above figures represent a mixture of full and part-time driving jobs, they indicate that there are at least 4,236,910 people employed just in the US as compensated drivers. Given the heavy investment that is being made in self-driving cars, taxis, buses, trucks, delivery “bots” and semi-trailers, in five to ten years, an unknown but significant number of the professional driving jobs in which people are paid for driving will disappear.
Self-driving cars may end up being safer than human-driven vehicles as their proponents claim, but think of the jobs that will be replaced as this occurs. As to Uber and Lyft drivers, the head of Fiat/Chrysler recently stated that he expects self-driving cars to be a significant part of its sales market in only five years. Uber just signed a deal with Volvo, now owned by China’s Geely Holding Group, a multinational automotive manufacturing company, for the delivery of 24,000 self-driving cars beginning as early as 2019.
Geely Holding has also acquired the rights to the most advanced flying car system as research expands to that sector. Self-driving taxis, limousines, Uber and Lyft cars, delivery vehicles, trucks and other types of vehicles we haven’t even considered will quickly put a wide range of people out of work. Following the announcement that Uber was testing self-driving cars in Pittsburgh, a stunned 41 year old Uber driver lamented, “It feels like we’re just rentals.” She then added: “I kind of figured it would be a couple more years down the line before it was really implemented and I’ll be retired by then,” she said.
This development has seemingly “come out of left field” and will eliminate millions of jobs across a large and diverse spectrum. It is amazing how stealthily self-driving cars, semi-trucks and buses seem to have popped out of nowhere (after billions of dollars in investment) to be touted as the automobile and transport option of the future, not the distant future but 2020 or so. We now have driverless taxis in Singapore, automated commuter buses in Finland, self-driving cars being tested with mixed results in Pittsburgh, Michigan, Arizona and San Francisco. Fully autonomous cars are expected to “hit” some French roads in 2018.
Think about how stunning that development of autonomous vehicles is and how fast the systems are emerging. Then consider how many jobs these developments are potentially eliminating and the types of employment affected. The problems are not simply ones of job destruction. Security is a vital concern. Improvised IEDs and suicide bombings that use vehicles has already become a common strategy. Consider the threats posed by driverless vehicles controlled remotely or from pilotless drones of the kind that are already available for general consumer purchase. Terrorists won’t even have to sacrifice themselves. Some high tech “whiz kids” are even planning to introduce flying cars in the relatively near future, raising the prospect of unmanned flying IEDs packed with high explosives that will be able to overcome available defensive countermeasures.
Consider also the job destruction implications of such things as the driverless cars that are already running tourists around London, or the robot couriers that are delivering messages, pizzas, fast food, packages and materials. A new start-up company even wants to put self-driving semi-trucks on the roads. Its stated goal: “For now, the robot truckers would only take control on the highways, leaving humans to handle the tougher task of wending through city streets. The idea is similar to the automated pilots that fly jets at high altitudes while leaving the takeoffs and landings to humans.” The potential posed by such massive trucks loaded with tons of explosive presents another dire security threat.
When we think about the growing destruction of employment opportunities due to the combination of Artificial Intelligence and robotics, the dangers to the systems’s survival become even more severe. The IMF, for example, projects a 60% job loss. Ben Goertzel, a US-Brazilian tech leader and the founder and chief executive of SingularityNET, foresees AI taking over 80% of jobs. His group is working on “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI), an AI with human cognitive abilities. Considered generally to be the “godfather” of AI, Geoffrey Hinton quit his job at Google a year ago and stated he regrets his life’s work due to the widespread creation of disinformation and human job destruction.
The rapid disappearance of employment opportunities across a diverse spectrum of forms due to Artificial Intelligence generates a process that goes far beyond Joseph Schumpeter’s idea of systemic phases of “Creative Destruction” in which many people are harmed by the rapid shift in the nature of the economic and social system due to new transformational technological breakthroughs, but are ultimately buffered by the positive effects created by the new forms of enhanced productivity as institutions and behaviors adapt to the new conditions. In that Schumpeterian dynamic, there is an expectation of cyclical downturns followed by an eventual return to prosperity. With AI, while many analysts go with historical data to assume a recovery, a Schumpeterian period of downturn, with a rebound after a decade or so this is not going to happen in the AI world which has implications and effects far beyond simple tool-based technological systems.
How These Developments are Affecting Gen Z Workers in 2025 [Added]
“Most Gen Z workers fear AI is eventually going to kill their careers — and force them into blue-collar jobs”, Ben Cost, 7/31/25. https://nypost.com/2025/07/31/lifestyle/gen-z-workers-looking-at-blue-collar-jobs-amid-ai-displacement-fears/.
AI is rendering Gen Z job-solete. With bots becoming ubiquitous in every sector, the 20-somethings coming of working age during the AI era fear that the tech could derail their careers. According to a survey by online job platform Zety, 72% of Gen Z workers believe AI will kill the number of entry-level corporate jobs over the next half-decade, pushing them towards blue-collar gigs to remain vocationally relevant.
Gen Z’s “interest in trade work and hands-on careers shows a desire for purpose, security, and control in an AI-driven world,” Jasmine Escalera, a career expert at Zety, told HR Drive. “I call this shift the ‘AIxiety Pivot’ — a growing movement of professionals who are proactively changing course because of AI-related fears and instability.” Gen Z is wising up and turning to blue-collar jobs instead. Zety discovered this troubling trend by polling more than 1,000 Zoomer employees in the US, questioning them on topics ranging from job security to AI’s impact on entry-level roles and a shifting interest toward trade careers.
A staggering 65% of respondents fretted that college degrees would not safeguard them against automation. Meanwhile, 1 in 5 (18%) said they had little to no confidence that their current career trajectory would still be relevant in the next decade. 43% of Gen Z employees have adjusted their plans for the AI age, with 40% of respondents teaching themselves new skills or earning certifications, while 29% of Gen Z are switching jobs by looking at entirely new industries. “More Gen Z college graduates are turning to trade careers and for good reason,” Resume Builder’s Chief Career Advisor Stacie Haller pointed out. “Trade jobs offer hands-on work that’s difficult to automate. Additionally, many grads find their degrees don’t lead to careers in their field, prompting them to explore more practical, in-demand alternatives.” 53% felt that blue-collar and skilled trades, such as construction and plumbing, were less susceptible to AI takeovers. Meanwhile, 47% felt people-focused professions such as healthcare, education, and social work were secure, while just 12% deemed operational or administrative roles like finance, HR, and project coordination safe from tech-stinction.
CASE STUDY # 2: LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS, AKA “KILLER ROBOTS”
Although it is only one among a set of critical issues we face, the militarization of AI/robotics systems poses a threat to our survival. General Paul Selva, the second highest ranking US military officer, recently told the Senate’s Armed Services Committee that: “the military should keep the ethical rules of war in place lest we unleash on humanity a set of robots that we don't know how to control.” Added to this is that three of the main actors in this technological drama—the US, Russia and China—have histories of not “playing well together”. They are seeking to dominate, not collaborate.
There have been increasing calls by scientists, the United Nations and others to ban “killer robots” or “lethal autonomous weapons systems, to which one critic responded: “shouldn’t you have thought about that sooner?” Stephen Hawking warned about what he saw as the possibility for mass destruction due to the combination of innate human aggression and technological developments of systems such as represented by AI/robotics.
As part of an interview with The Times of London, Hawking stated:
"Since civilisation began, aggression has been useful inasmuch as it has definite survival advantages. It is hard-wired into our genes by Darwinian evolution. Now, however, technology has advanced at such a pace that this aggression may destroy us all by nuclear or biological war."
Specifically on the issue of the development of Artificial Intelligence systems, Hawking indicates that, while AI may be a fantastic development in some aspects, it is equally likely that it will turn out to be the death of humanity.
Margi Murphy sums up what we are creating as follows: “The human-like abilities of robots continue to develop at incredible pace - with droids now being seen to chase targets and even fire guns.” Even that development pales in relation to the other large-scale investments into the military uses of AI/robotics on the part of the US, UK, Russia and China. We are developing autonomous warplanes, ships, submarines, tanks, drones, machine gun “bots” and much more. A very small “taste” of what is happening as well as rising concerns is listed below.
Autonomous Weapons Systems and “Killer” Robots
“Ban on killer robots urgently needed, say scientists: Technology now exists to create autonomous weapons that can select and kill human targets without supervision as UN urged to outlaw them”. The Guardian, Ian Sample, 11/13/17.
“Robots could destabilise world through war and unemployment, says UN: United Nations opens new centre in Netherlands to monitor artificial intelligence and predict possible threats.” The Guardian, Daniel Boffey, 9/27/17.
“Meet the New Robot Army: Intelligent machines that could usher in an era of autonomous warfare are already here”, Wall Street Journal, Paul Scharre, 4/11/18.
“Army Tests New Super-Soldier Exoskeleton: The Army is testing an exoskeleton technology which uses AI to analyze and replicate individual walk patterns, provide additional torque, power and mobility”, Scout.com, Kris Osborn, 11/25/17.
“Artificial muscles give 'superpower' to robots”, Yahoo News, 11/27/17.
“Robots Replace Soldiers in First Breaching Exercise of its Kind”, Military.com Daily News, Martin Egnash, 4/8/18.
“Pentagon: China, Russia Soon Capable of Destroying U.S. Satellites--J-2 intelligence report warns of new dangers to low earth orbit satellites”, Free Beacon, Bill Gertz, 1/30/18.
“Armed Ground Robots Could Join the Ukrainian Conflict Next Year”, Defense One, Patrick Tucker, 10/10/17.
“Russia Says It Will Field a Robot Tank that Outperforms Humans”, Defense One, Patrick Tucker, 11/8/17.
Russia is reported to be building a “robot army”. Vladimir Putin recently proclaimed that the country that wins the race to develop artificial intelligence would be able to rule the world. He also urged a sharing of knowledge among nations to prevent such dominance. Putin stated that future military conflicts would be between nations’ autonomous AI/robotic weapons systems.
In theory, such autonomous weapons should reduce the level of human deaths from warfare, but it is more likely they will increase the probability that conflicts could be started more frequently because human life is not at risk—at least in the initial phases of conflict. There is the real possibility that things will get out of control and the violence quickly extends to human populations. This doesn’t even consider the possibility of “Doomsday Devices” that are set to destroy entire systems if defeat is imminent, such as portrayed in the Star Trek television series “Self-Destruct” setting that explodes and destroys everything when defeat is imminent.
Not to overdo SciFi references, but adaptation of AI/robotics to a wide range of military uses could easily lead to the elimination of millions of humans independent of whether a “super-intelligent” set of AI “Overminds” or “Skynets” decide to destroy the human race. Research is ongoing into fully integrated weapons systems controlled by an AI source that will be able to direct the operation of thousands of weapons simultaneously.
Since the world’s major powers appear to be headed in this direction it creates the specter of incredibly efficient AI/robotic military systems waging war on each other outside ultimate human control in a kind of mythological-like Ragnarok scenario of a global conflict between competing AI/robotic “gods”. After all, what is the purpose of creating such systems if not to deal with competing AI weapons systems in the hands of another superpower?
CASE STUDY # 3: JOB LOSS IN FINANCE, BANKING, SECURITIES, MANUFACTURING, MEDICINE AND LAW
A continuing thread in ongoing AI research and development activity is that job displacement is no longer limited to “blue collar” or manual work. Finance and brokerage systems have begun to provide investors with AI/robotic financial advisers. Banks are slashing clerical and mid-range staff by the tens of thousands. In the process, human financial advisors are being terminated in significant numbers. Banks are also in the early stages of closing many of their branches that had grown to a total of 90,000 less than a decade ago but are now being under-utilized because a large number of people have shifted to online access and ATMs. This process will accelerate due to the cost savings it creates, with the result that tens of thousands of jobs will be lost.
The chief information officer for the Bank of New York Mellon states: “
[B]ots armed with AI and the ability to understand and respond in natural language can be used to answer clients’ queries and eventually execute transactions.” …. “You start with something simple, maybe just offering information, then you start doing transactions.”
The “peak human” orientation is explained in the context of continuing bank job cuts:
A Few Job-Killing Developments in Banking and Finance
“Robots Challenge Banks in Sweden's $524 Billion Savings Market”, Bloomberg News, Niklas Magnusson & Hanna Hoikkala, 5/15/18.
“Inside Shanghai's robot bank: China opens world's first human-free branch: ‘Little Dragon’ can chat to customers, accept bank cards and check accounts. She joins a growing army of robot workers in China’s cities”. The Guardian, 5/14/18.
“Deutsche Bank CEO suggests robots could replace half the company's 97,000 employees”. CNBC, Abigail Hess, 11/8/17.
“Danske Bank's Wealth Management Robot Now Has 11,500 Clients”, Bloomberg News, Tasneem Hanfi Brogger, 12/10/17.
“Robots in Finance Bring New Risks to Stability, Regulators Warn”, Bloomberg News, Silla Brush, 11/1/17.
“Banks Shutter 1,700 Branches in Fastest Decline on Record: Lenders keep cutting [jobs and branches] despite growing economy as customer move online”. Wall Street Journal.
What is occurring goes far beyond banking and finance. Industrial robots have already replaced very large numbers of humans in manufacturing. Ford Motors has installed advanced next generation manufacturing AI/robotics systems in a facility in Germany. A report indicates: “Ford … says that its new bot is capable of pinpoint accuracy, strength and dexterity. … "Robots are helping make tasks easier, safer and quicker, complementing our employees with abilities that open up unlimited worlds of production and design for new Ford models," said the director of vehicle operations for Ford Europe.
Such initially collaborative human/robotics or “cobot” situations are just a “foot in the door” until the next phase is reached and fewer and fewer humans are needed in the manufacturing process. Ford, for example, just announced that it was cutting ten percent or approximately 20,000 workers from its 200,000 strong global workforce. For the moment Ford’s German facility may be safe for workers but compensatory human job reductions occur elsewhere in Ford’s system. There is an almost irresistible momentum to the introduction of AI/robotics systems. The frequently voiced cry to “bring manufacturing back to America” ignores the fact that new manufacturing facilities will almost certainly be heavily “roboticized” with very limited numbers of jobs for human workers. Much the same process is taking place in areas of work such as construction and building trades, autonomous vehicles and roboticized farming, threatening millions of jobs.
Construction and Trades, Autonomous Driving and Farming
“Robots break new ground in construction industry”, Associated Press, Terence Chea, 3/19/18.
“Construction robots weld, bolt, lift to beat worker shortage”, Associated Press, Yuri Kageyama, 4/23/18.
“Robot farmers successfully harvested barley without any human hands: Why it matters to you. Robot-ran farms have the potential to increase efficiency in the agriculture industry.” Digital Trends, Dyllan Furness, 9/25/17.
“The Robot Delivery Vans Are Here: A secretive startup has unveiled its new grocery-getter, one of many automakers that are leaving people out of the equation”, Bloomberg News, Kyle Stock, 1/30/18.
“Self-driving cars will leave 'third of population jobless' as AI sparks mass unemployment: A third of the population faces sickening unemployment because of self-driving cars.” Daily Star UK.
“Truck drivers like me will soon be replaced by automation. You're next”, The Guardian, Finn Murphy, 11/17/17.
“Italy’s robot concierge a novelty on the way to better AI”, Associated Press, Colleen Barry & Charlene Pele, 4/2/18.
An example of more “cerebral” jobs being taken over by AI is found in the fact that law firms are increasingly using computers to perform data management and research tasks. These have proven adept at doing the “grunt” work previously done by associate lawyers whose services are no longer needed for discovery, case management, research, or “gofer” work because the AI systems can do the work faster, better and less expensively. The lower costs and far greater efficiencies can then contribute to law firm partners’ profits. Far beyond the relatively small legal employment market are the vast numbers of retail workers and cashiers that are increasingly finding themselves without employment.
The Rapid Elimination of Retail Workers and Cashiers
“Amazon's first checkout-free grocery store opens on Monday: Using ‘just walk out’ technology to end queues, Amazon Go fires a warning to the high street”, The Guardian, 1/22/18.
“Walmart planning a cashierless store”, Axios, 12/20/17.
“The US retail industry is hemorrhaging jobs – and it's hitting women hardest: As the retail landscape undergoes a dramatic transformation, analysis finds 129,000 women lost jobs last year”, The Guardian, Dominic Rushe, 1/13/18.
“Jack in the Box CEO: Swapping cashiers for robots 'makes sense' due to minimum wage increase”, Fox News, Kathleen Joyce, 1/10/18.
“End of the checkout line: the looming crisis for American cashiers: [Job loss in] the retail sector has long had a far greater impact on American employment – and checkout-line technology is putting it at risk.” The Guardian, Julia Carrie Wong, 8/16/17.
“Wifi-equipped robots triple work efficiency at the warehouse of the world's largest online retailer”, Daily Mail UK, Tracy You, 8/2/17.
“How Many Robots Does it Take to Fill a Grocery Order? It once took online grocer Ocado two hours to put together a box of 50 food items. Now machines can do it in five minutes.” Bloomberg News, Jing Cao, 11/6/17.
“'Robots can't beat us': Las Vegas casino workers prep for strike over automation”, The Guardian, Dan Hernandez, 6/2/18. “At the Tipsy Robot in Las Vegas, a mechanical arm mixes cocktails that patrons order on tablet computers. … [T]he underlying message at the future-themed bar is that humans are irrelevant.”
Hospitals and other parts of the medical system are shifting to robots and automated practices to provide a range of assistance, including surgery, diagnostics, nursing and physical therapy. Japan has focused part of its attention on developing robots that are pleasant in appearance and are being developed to supplant human travel assistance and even insurance agents in the near future. This is because studies indicate humans feel more comfortable with pleasant appearing or quasi-human visage robots than with “terminators”.
Teachers, Writers, Dentists, Doctors, Nurses, and Bureaucrats
“ 'Inspirational' robots to begin replacing teachers within 10 years.” Telegraph UK, Henry Bodkin, 9/11/17. “This will be part of a revolution in one-to-one learning, a leading educationalist has predicted. Sir Anthony Seldon, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Buckingham, said intelligent machines that adapt to suit the learning styles of individual children will soon render traditional academic teaching all but redundant.”
“Robots learned how to write fake Yelp reviews like a human”, New York Post, Lauren Tousignant, 8/31/17. “Researchers at the University of Chicago have trained a neural network, or artificial intelligence system, to write fake reviews on Yelp – and it’s pretty hard to tell them apart from a human review.”
“Chinese robot dentist is first to fit implants in patient’s mouth without any human involvement: Successful procedure raises hopes technology could avoid problems caused by human error and help overcome shortage of qualified dentists.” South China Morning Post [SCMP], 9/21/17.
“London hospitals to replace doctors and nurses with AI for some tasks: UCLH aims to bring ‘game-changing’ benefits of artificial intelligence to NHS patients, from cancer diagnosis to reducing wait times”, The Guardian, Hannah Devlin, 5/21/18.
“AI better at finding skin cancer than doctors: study”, Yahoo News, AFP, 5/28/18.
“Robots 'could replace 250,000 UK public sector workers': Reform thinktank says sector could be ‘the next Uber’ and staff should embrace the gig economy amid rise in automation”, The Guardian, Damien Gayle, 2/6/17.
The expansion of AI/robotics should be examined closely in relation to what will actually happen to jobs even if the kinds of new investment and reinvestment that Donald Trump talks about with promises of numerous companies to preserve, expand or invest in new manufacturing facilities in the US. The Japanese company, Softbank, is one of the world’s most prominent companies in the development and application of AI/robotics technology. While Softbank has promised to invest $50 billion in the US and Foxconn $10 billion in US manufacturing facilities, there are concerns.
A core concern is whether such manufacturing facilities will be largely roboticized with only limited and specialized human employment far below historical models. Another is that, given that the businesses are centered on AI/robotics technologies and applications, there are legitimate questions whether the Softbank and Foxconn production processes will create human jobs, or make matters worse by accelerating job loss for human workers even while generating significant returns on investment for wealthy investors.
Like Softbank, Alibaba’s CEO Jack Ma indicated in the early days of the Trump Administration that Alibaba was planning on bringing 1,000,000 jobs to the US. Even if Alibaba does establish a more significant sales and manufacturing presence in the US, as Sherisse Pham writes in her criticism of Ma’s 1,000,000 jobs claim, nothing close to that number of jobs will be created. In fact, Pham says that Ma’s job creation idea does not involve building any manufacturing facilities in the US, but is predicated on a presumed expansion in the number of US stores that would be expected to sell Alibaba’s products.
The predicted new hiring is based on the expectation that US sellers of Alibaba’s products would hire added workers to service a much higher projected sales demand. Of course Alibaba’s products would be in competition with other retailers of similar products, and, if it outcompeted some of those manufacturers, there would presumably be reduced employment in stores that lost sales to Alibaba.
Such convenient “new jobs” math is being used to support claims that the future of human employment remains promising. That assumption is not accurate. The businesses that Jack Ma anticipates would hire human workers are more likely to simply be “ordering conduits” through which consumers could order Alibaba’s products that would then be filled and shipped by robotic workers that are increasingly finding their way into online order taking, product retrieval, packaging and shipping. We already see this happening with Amazon and Walmart in warehousing, ordering and delivery sectors. One report indicates that numerous retailers are seeking to counter Amazon’s automation strategy in order to compete. This will inevitably reduce the number of human workers.
CASE STUDY # 4: GROWING HOMELESSNESS
We are witnessing a steady increase in the numbers of homeless in the US and are caught between compassion and contradiction. Anaheim, for example, has recently declared a “homeless emergency”. Portland, Oregon is facing a growing problem with an aggressive homeless population about which officials seem to be at a loss in figuring out ways to cope.
Growing homelessness in California, New York, the Pacific Northwest, many other urban areas and even rural settings is an early symptom of what will expand dramatically as job loss and addictions increase. A recent report indicates that Los Angeles has more than 55,000 homeless. The number is increasing year by year, and LA’s ability to provide even basic health, sanitation, and other humane services to such numbers is grossly inadequate.
Rapidly Growing Homelessness
“America's homeless population rises for the first time since the Great Recession: a new government study finds 553,742 people were homeless on a single night this year, as advocates lament a crisis that shows no sign of abating”, The Guardian, Alastair Gee, 12/5/17.
“ 'America's new Vietnam': why a homelessness crisis seems unsolvable: Despite approving billions in funds to fight the problem, Los Angeles has seen its homeless population continue to grow.” The Guardian, Andrew Gumbel, 3/16/18.
“L.A. County's homeless problem is worsening despite billions from tax measures”, Los Angeles Times, Doug Smith, 2/19/18.
“Homelessness soars on West Coast as cities struggle to cope”, San Francisco Gate, Gillian Flaccus and Geoff Mulvihill, 11/6/17.
“L.A. County wants to help build guest houses in backyards — for homeless people”, Los Angeles Times, Gale Holland, 4/11/18.
“LA Considers Ambitious Proposal To Provide Housing For Every Homeless Person”, CBS Local Los Angeles, 3/23/18.
“ ‘National disgrace’: Community fights back as California overrun by homelessness, human waste, needles”, Fox News, Tori Richards, 2/26/18.
“Deaths among King County’s homeless reach new high amid growing crisis”, Seattle Times, Vernal Coleman, 12/30/17.
“Bay Area cities face growing crisis as RVs become homes of last resort”, East Bay Times, Louis Hansen, 12/17/17.
“Columbia Sportswear may close Portland office over death threats, public defecation by homeless people”, Fox News, Travis Fedschun, 11/27/17.
“Homeless people defecating on LA streets fuels horror hepatitis outbreak, as city faulted”, Fox News, Tori Richards, 11/22/17.
“The Silicon Valley paradox: one in four people are at risk of hunger: study suggests that 26.8% of the population qualify as ‘food insecure’ based on risk factors such as missing meals or relying on food banks”, The Guardian, Charlotte Simmonds, 12/12/17.
“California’s homelessness crisis moves to the country: California housing costs are spiraling so high that they are pushing the state’s homelessness crisis into places it’s never been before — sparsely populated rural counties.” San Francisco Chronicle, Kevin Fagan and Alison Graham, 9/8/17.
“More Homeless People Live in New York than Any Other City”, WNYC Report, Mirela Iverac, 12/6/17. The number reported by the federal government is 76,000 compared to Los Angeles’ 55,000.
Speaking of “gross”, that same report indicates that a dangerous and growing outbreak of Hepatitis A is directly linked to LA’s homeless residents since many have taken to defecating on streets and sidewalks and lack sanitation. LA has also voted to create a $1.2 billion program to build housing for its homeless population and a recent proposal advocated guaranteeing decent housing for all of LA’s homeless. A recent proposal suggested that Los Angeles homeowners could be subsidized for converting parts of their homes or garages into living quarters for homeless people. As impossible as that sounds the fact is that California is facing an epidemic of homelessness that appears beyond its ability to cope. Since the numbers are increasing annually and can be expected to grow steadily higher this presents a moving target.
The increase in homelessness is partly due to people suffering from addictions to drugs or alcohol. Others have serious physical or emotional health problems. Millions have given up trying to find work after a lengthy period of joblessness and their eligibility for governmental assistance related to the job market has ended. They are relegated, if at all, to surviving through other welfare programs with limited benefits, begging and increasingly aggressive panhandling.
Another aspect of the problem, one that is likely to expand dramatically as AI/robotics joblessness takes hold, is the emergence of what has been called the “voluntary” homeless made up of people who will never be full contributing members of society but will require assistance and will impose undesirable impacts on the areas in which they circulate. This brings Yuval Harari’s warning about the emergence of a “useless class” to the forefront. Unfortunately the phenomenon appears to be considerably more than being a matter of merely uselessness, with destructive behavior too often being the norm, resulting in significant health care and policing costs as well as a sense of social insecurity. A recent report indicates aspects of the problem.
From the parks of Berkeley to the streets of Brooklyn, and in most every large city in between, they have become an almost inescapable part of urban life. Known by many names – “crusty punks,” “crusties,” gutter punks,” “crumb bums” and “dirty kids,” to list but a few –
Many have found themselves homeless due to the loss of employment, health conditions and overwhelming psychological stress. Homelessness has become an epidemic visible mainly on the streets, parks and alleys of our cities. We are in the early phases of the homelessness crisis and already have a serious problem of an inadequate social safety net. From the perspective of societies that have the stark option of condemning a significant part of their populace to living “on the street” as jobs disappear, democracy simply cannot cope with the stresses. Added to this homelessness crisis is pension insecurity and the prospect that our most vulnerable members of society will end up betrayed, bereft and ignored. The provision of care for the elderly and the growing ranks of the less fortunate is vital if our society is to save its soul.
The problem of the homeless is not limited to urban areas or to the West Coast. One report indicates an expansion from the cities into California’s rural areas. Another analysis indicates the intricate and complex problems contributing to the growth in homelessness. This includes the aging of that population demographic with a resulting increase in health issues. As jobs continue to disappear, the ranks of the homeless will swell even more dramatically.
CASE STUDY # 5: INTERLOCKED COMPLEXITY IS BOTH A STRENGTH AND SERIOUS WEAKNESS DUE TO SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY
Our critical supply systems have been increasingly dependent on AI systems. Such vital areas as energy, food, water, and transportation are controlled by computer applications. Power plants, finance, air and rail transport, the potential for autonomous vehicles in the millions are already vulnerable to attack, hacking and disruption. As AI/robotics has spread we have become more and more vulnerable to their disruption or collapse in ways that present fundamental dangers.
We mentioned earlier the fact that 60 percent of the world’s population is in the process of moving to “mega-cities”. Such urban centers are not self-sufficient but depend entirely on intricate supply line networks for food, transport, fuel, electrical energy, and the supply of virtually any other product on which their populations depend. They are sustainable only when those supply lines work efficiently and securely. When they fail for any reason, including deliberate sabotage, people will die if the problem exists for any substantial length of time. Examples of potential systemic vulnerabilities suggest how serious the problem could become.
Systemic Vulnerability
“U.S. Electric Grid Vulnerable to Unprecedented Waves of Attack: Threats increase as industry scrambles to boost security”, Free Beacon, Adam Kredo, 3/27/18.
“Deadly attacks feared as hackers target industrial sites”, The Hill, Morgan Chalfant, 5/31/18. “The hacking threat to critical infrastructure in the United States and beyond is growing larger, with nation states and other malicious actors looking to gain a foothold in sensitive technologies to conduct espionage and potentially stage disruptive or destructive attacks.”
“FCC wants Chinese tech out of US phones, routers”, Washington Examiner, Joel Gehrke, 3/26/18.
“Study reveals North Korean cyber-espionage has reached new heights: Spying unit is widening its operations into aerospace and defence industries, according to US security firm”, The Guardian, David Taylor, 2/20/18.
“Hackers attacking US and European energy firms could sabotage power grids: Cybersecurity firm Symantec says ‘Dragonfly’ group has been investigating and penetrating energy facilities in US, Turkey and Switzerland.” The Guardian, Alex Hern, 9/6/17.
“Major cyber-attack on UK a matter of 'when, not if' – security chief: Ciaran Martin says Britain fortunate so far to avoid major, crippling attack”, The Guardian, Ewen MacAskill, 1/23/18.
“Congress warned North Korean EMP attack would kill '90% of all Americans'”, Washington Examiner, Paul Bedard, 10/12/17.
“Nigeria’s entire 200million population plunged in to darkness by power grid meltdown after nation watches World Cup defeat on TV”, James Cox, 6/16/18, The Sun UK.
We are already at a point of extensive dependency on AI/robotic systems. How long would any major US urban/suburban metropolitan area have the ability to cope with a sudden cessation in the supply of food from around the country or world? What happens to major cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Rome and many others if extremely vulnerable power grids are sabotaged?
It would be child’s play to knock out several of the primary power transmission centers that have long been demonstrated to have grossly inadequate security. As one report asks, “what happens on the fourth day after our food and clean water reserves run out?” We have no answers to that. One analysis of the situation in the UK is that in the event of a serious cyber attack and grid failure the nation is “four meals away from anarchy”.
Similarly, as we construct natural gas and oil pipelines spanning thousands of miles, what happens when a saboteur decides to blow the lines up in the middle of winter in the northern half of the US? It doesn’t even have to be a violent physical intervention with explosives or poisoned water and air supplies. Systems that are dependent on computer programs to operate are vulnerable to sophisticated hackers. There is no reason to believe that ordinary utility systems, including nuclear power plants, are immune from intrusion and manipulation or that water supplies couldn’t be poisoned.
Nor need the target be a nuclear plant as opposed to a more traditional power generation or transmission facility. It may not even take a physical assault to sabotage such facilities as opposed to a hacker’s intrusion that shuts down critical elements or some kind of targeted EMP or Electromagnetic Pulse event. Our increasing dependence on such systems offers a target for those within and outside the country who want to harm us for whatever reason.
Interdependence and the instantaneous transmission of effects are in many ways positive developments, particularly in ordered systems with a substantial degree of stability. But they are also weaknesses and points of strategic leverage for those who seek to “crash” the system. Warren Buffett recently described potential cyber attacks on our system as the biggest threat faced by Western society. This is because so many of our systems are interconnected to the point they could collapse in ways that paralyze our economic, supply and security systems.
A very specific example of complex system vulnerability and Artificial Intelligence systems and our own willingness to create dependencies that increase our vulnerability is offered by the case of High Frequency Trading (“HFT” or “algorithmic trading”). HFT represents an example of the types of problems we address in The Artificial Intelligence Contagion. HFT developed in the late 1990s and early 2000s as a mechanism for financial firms to automate buy/sell decisions at a speed so fast that they could place trades in response to market information faster than anyone else, thus earning above normal profits on each trade. HFT created a race in which financial investing firms sought to use ever faster computers and ever more sophisticated algorithms to get a jump on their competitors in reacting to each new piece of financial data.
Because an HFT algorithm executes trades in stocks, commodities, foreign exchange, and financial instruments nearly instantaneously according to relatively simple sets of rules in response to particular events such as observing a particular pattern of trading activity in a stock, the HFT trades on the basis of events connected primarily to movements in the markets. HFT works primarily on those market movements or adjustments and not to real world factors affecting the value of those markets to real world investors. Moreover, a significant fact is that a single HFT execution can trigger a response from another HFT firm, which then triggers reactions from other firms in a possible cascade or ripple effect that happens in micro- or milliseconds. This can cause significant market fluctuations entirely unrelated to real world events or the actual health of the companies whose shares are being traded.
The potential for unanticipated consequences and catastrophic feedback loops generated by HFT has been demonstrated. Famously, the Facebook initial public offering attracted so many HFT orders on the NASDAQ exchange that the orders overwhelmed the NASDAQ system and caused a 30-minute delay in trading Facebook securities as well as briefly crashing all NASDAQ trades. Similarly, HFT is thought to have exacerbated the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” that caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop nearly 1,000 points in only 36 minutes. In 2015, U.S. prosecutors charged a London stock futures trader with market manipulation that may have triggered the event using trading algorithms designed to drive down the price of a particular stock. This in turn led other algorithms to react and depress not only that stock but others in a vicious feedback loop. Although the 2010 crash was significant and newsworthy, the reality is the such flash crashes are common.
The “AI Contagion” metaphor is powerfully applicable here. The dynamic sequence goes along the lines of--humans first create the HFT platforms. They then purchase faster computers, “collocate” their HFT platforms in the same building or room as the computers run share sales and purchases, hire the best programming talent to develop new algorithms, and so on. Then they set them loose to trade, seeking to outperform other platforms. Platforms that perform well in the invisible competition taking place in the computer servers make more money for their owners, who then invest more to create even better platforms to compete against the next generation. Humans, at a certain point in this process, exist to feed the machines because the machines generate benefits for them even though the humans reach a point where they neither comprehend nor engage with the machines in any meaningful sense.
In contrast to this dystopian vision of a threshold at which humans become symbiotically “owned” by the machines and wholly dependent on what they created, many still consider algorithmic trading and relatively recent developments in actual AI-based trading to augment rather than replace human action. Tim Worstall, Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London, opines that HFT and the markets in which they operate have matured significantly since 2010, and HFT is now “a boring and unprofitable part of the basic infrastructure of the markets.”
New York Times writer, Conrad De Aenlle, reports that investment firms are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to augment their short and long term investment decisions while still maintaining human control to address novel situations for which the AI is not prepared. In this vision of AI/robotics, the value of a “human in the loop” means that AI/robotics brings both risks and also opportunities for eliminating routine work that can be automated while expanding opportunities for human work that cannot.
The point of all this is that our vulnerability to accidental, reckless or deliberate actions that weaken or even “crash” a critical element of our system has been increased by orders of magnitude. Dependence on computers and AI systems, coupled with the long distance transport of foodstuffs, natural gas and oil, electronic banking, power grids, and other similar requirements of a complex civilization mean that it will be surprisingly easy to cripple the critical systems Western democracies take for granted.
CASE STUDY # 6: DRONES, OR WHY DID WE GIVE TERRORISTS AND DRUG CARTELS AN AIR FORCE WHILE DESTROYING HUMAN DELIVERY JOBS?
The FBI Director, Christopher Wray, has warned that terrorist drone attacks are likely in the US. Both the US Air Force and Chinese military have been developing a “drone swarm” technology that would make it extremely unlikely defenders could successfully avert attacks in which large numbers of small drones would make autonomous attacks on targets.
AI/robotics even comes into play on this level. Drones are not cute little hobbyist toys “just like” small model airplanes. They are weapons and airborne delivery systems dependent on AI capabilities. ISIS has already utilized remote control drones in the Middle East against US-backed forces and they are at the more primitive stage. From the beginning of the emergence of increasingly sophisticated drones it has been mind boggling that Western governments are allowing the sale and use of drones in civilian and commercial sectors. Remote controlled or programmable drones provide extremists with an “air force” and an almost invisible and unstoppable delivery or guided missile system capable of evading surveillance, fences, concrete barriers and other defensive measures.
Internal and external attackers will be able to use the new technologies for attack and sabotage, allowing them to spread death and disruption in ways not heretofore possible. This includes drones, automated vehicles and cyberwar attacks on critical systems. We are seeing a continual flow of reports on the improvements in drone technology, guidance and payload capacity for purposes of commercial product delivery. This includes the ability to carry payloads up to 100 pounds or to drop deliveries by parachute from hovering drones. A Canadian company recently announced it would soon have a drone capable of carrying payloads of up to 400 pounds. Even a quick look at the ongoing developments related to drone technology, its use and availability is enough to demonstrate the dangers of our careless actions.
Drones and Terror Attacks
“China Rapidly Building Advanced Arms for Use Against U.S.: Space weapons, drones using artificial intelligence priority in Beijing military buildup”, Free Beacon, Bill Gertz, 5/11/18.
“U.S. officials warn Congress on risks of drones, seek new powers”, David Shepardson, Reuters, 6/6/18.
“Terrorists could weaponise deadly plague disease by releasing it as a cloud above cities killing thousands, experts warn.” Sun UK, Patrick Knox, 7/21/17.
“How do we thwart the latest terrorist threat: swarms of weaponised drones?” The Guardian, Alyssa Sims, 1/19/18.
“Homeland Security bulletin warns of weaponized drones and threat to aviation”, ABC News, Geneva Sands, 11/9/17.
“Something else to fret about: ISIS mounting dirty bombs on drones”, McClatchy News, Tim Johnson, 9/7/17.
“A 100-Drone Swarm, Dropped from Jets, Plans Its Own Moves: Once launched, the swarm can decide for itself how best to execute a mission.” Technology Review, Jamie Condliffe, 1/10/17.
The security implications of the nearly invisible and silent airborne systems represented by drone technology are obvious. The Chinese military is concentrating on developing drone technology and considers it central to its capability in what is called asymmetric warfare. As with the US military, this concentration includes the ability to launch large-scale and autonomous AI-dependent “drone swarms” that are likely to prove impossible to stop.
A representative of the US Department of Homeland Security indicated in Congressional testimony that:
"Terrorist groups overseas use drones to conduct attacks on the battlefield and continue to plot to use them in terrorist attacks elsewhere. This is a very serious, looming threat that we are currently unprepared to confront." As an example of the danger Patrick Knox warns: “